Happy Friday! This week we have news on the new head of NASA, the effect of tariffs on AI, rechargeable nuclear batteries, China’s push to be a global leader in alternative protein, and more. But first, this week’s deep focus thought piece: macro parallels to the Gilded Age and Progressivism.
This Week’s Deep Focus: The Gilded Age
Even though I am a deep mathematician, my original majors were history and then mathematics. A young teacher in my International Baccalaureate (IB) high school program showed me history was pattern recognition and themes like math, instead of mindless memorization. One of my three foci in history was the period of the Gilded Age to Progressivism in the US. The social reforms that characterize the Progressive Era were a response to the wealth inequality, rapid innovation, alternative cheap labor, and political partisanship of the Gilded Age. As cultural change diminished the enthusiasm for reforms, Progressivism ended in the roaring ‘20s with people more focused on consumerism and emulating the wealthy elite of the Gilded Age…and puttin’ on the Ritz!
While history doesn’t repeat itself, it sure does rhyme. Here are some couplets to consider and how they interact with deeptech:
Wealth Inequality: At the time of the infamous 1897 ball, the top 0.3% of US families had as much wealth as the rest of the population combined. Currently, the top 1% hold over 30% of US wealth and it has been rising since 1990. For context, the bottom 50% (a family making less than $192K annually) accounts for only 2% of wealth in the US. The 19th century “captains of industry” or “robber barons” of railroads, industrial steel, oil, and finance parallel the advanced tech of the current technological oligarchy. The Panic of 1893 was a crisis point that led to Progressive Era policies to reverse inequalities. Notably the McKinley Tariff Act of 1890 raised tariffs to nearly 50% and helped trigger the Panic of 1983, the largest economic depression in the US until the Great Depression of the 1930s. Historically, tariffs were between 80-95% of federal income. The foundations of a federal income tax only began in earnest in the Gilded Age. While tariffs did hurt most industries and people, the least affected industries were those of the “robber barons.” Deeptech startups will have similar shelter given their strategic defense value as well as their alignment to domestic manufacturing. Private equity will be less fortunate given their financing relies on leverage and debt financing will be exposed to higher nominal interest rates due to increased inflation.
Rapid Innovation: The rapid advance of technology like AI, space tech, bioengineering, quantum computing, energy tech parallels the rapid rise of technology in the late 19th century of information tech (phone, radio, typewriter, adding machines), railroads, the theory of germs, Thomas Edison’s incandescent light bulb, and the first electric power station. The transition from a primarily agricultural society to an industrialized tech society led to social volatility. Those left behind in the transition and economic upside led to the Farmers Revolt of the 1890s and the formation of the Populist Party in 1892. Similarly, while the US enjoyed overall economic growth in the tech boom, those benefits accrued mainly to tech workers and left behind many in middle America. Attempts at re-industrialization with the CHIPS Act were too slow to provide jobs across the US. Unsurprisingly the Trump administration released a statement on scientific progress and innovation citing their deeptech successes including the American Artificial Intelligence Initiative, the National Quantum Initiative, and the Space Force. An ordered and smooth workforce development path will be key to a healthy transition to a deeptech and manufacturing focused society. Hopefully we can avoid a strictly proletarianized life in Gilded Age styled company towns as Tesla has proposed.
Alternative Cheap Labor: After the Civil War and formal end of slavery, the need for cheap labor to power industrialization shifted to mass immigration from Southern and Eastern Europe. The backlash from the influx of cheap labor led to nativist sentiments and anti-immigrant policies such as the extreme Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882. The underlying hope was an increase in wages for the “native population.” However, most studies show little positive or no effect since most “native populations” aren’t perfect substitutes for egregiously low wage laborers. Children were also a source of cheap labor for the dangerous working conditions in factories. Today with the pushback on illegal immigrants and lack of a skilled industrial workforce, we already see some moves to relax child labor laws or shift work to AI agents or robotic automation.
Political Partisanship: Political parties evolved quickly and intensely during this period of great technological transition and population dynamics. The US population doubled with 1 in 7 of all Americans being a new immigrant. For a country dominated by white male protestants farmers, the transition to an urban industrial society with competition from immigrants and women drove legislation and rapid shifts in political party dynamics. Third parties like the Prohibition Party, the Greenback Party, and Populist Party rose and fell along with factions like the Stalwarts, Half-Breeds, Mugwumps, Redeemers, and Bourbon Democrats in the two main parties. Political violence was more common with McKinley’s assassination being a notable example. Corruption was rampant with the lack of regulation of big business causing some historians like Mark Summers to call it the “Era of Good Stealings”. Some attempts to curb political corruption included the Pendleton Civil Service Act of 1883, where federal employees would be hired based on merit and not political connections or patronage. The excesses of industrial oligarchs in railroads and banking led to the Interstate Commerce Act and Sherman Antitrust Act by the end of the Gilded Age. American Imperialism characterized the Gilded Age to fuel industrialization and growth. In the 1890s alone, the US fought the Spanish-American War and overthrew the Hawaiian Kingdom to annex Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Guam, and the Philippines. Currently, we are entering a period of deregulation and reduced protection from corruption such as the pause to enforce the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. Imperialist tendencies for nearby territories are also returning with the interest in annexing Greenland, Canada, and Panama. If these forces go too far, we should (eventually) expect pushback as seen at the end of the Gilded Age and resulting in something akin to another Progressive Era.
Deep Tech News & More
AI
OpenAI 4o Image: OpenAI released their 4o image generation that includes image consistency across a series of images for storytelling. 5 min read
Tariff Impact on AI: As I mentioned in the thought piece, the least affected areas will be deeptech like AI. 3 min watch
Quantum AI: My friends over at SandboxAQ have raised over $150M from Google, Nvidia, and others this week to develop AI models for enterprises based on quantum computing techniques. 2 min read
Energy
Texas Goes Nuclear: Texas is planning a $2B incentive fund to attract new nuclear projects to the state. 3 min read
Rechargeable Nuclear Batteries: Japan created the first rechargeable battery using depleted uranium left over from fuel production for nuclear reactors. 3 min read
University Nuclear: Given Chicago is a leader in using nuclear energy, it is no surprise that the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign is partnering with Nano Nuclear for the first deployment of their advanced micro-reactor technology. 4 min read
Quantum
Quantum Col War: Given traditional cryptography is based on number theory I did as a young mathematician, the ultimate unlock of all those secret messages due to quantum computing is on the horizon. 7 min read
DARPA Quantum First Steps: DARPA announces almost 20 companies for its first stage of quantum benchmarking. 4 min read
Quantum Routers: Harvard University physicists have created a photon router that could be used for future quantum networks. 4 min read
Space
NASA Administrator: Next week confirmation hearings for Jared Isaacman begin with wide support, who will be busy over the next couple of months as resolution on NASA’s focus on the Moon vs Mars will come to a head. 1 minute read
The State of Space Manufacturing: Payload Space reviewed the current state of In-Space Servicing and Manufacturing (ISAM) including a tidbit on our friends over at Orbit Fab. 8 min read
Space Security Review: The Secure World Foundation released a report on the global state of counter-space capabilities. 17 page summary/316 page report read
Synthetic Biology
Organ Regeneration: Given my father passed away about 15 years ago from eventual complications with an organ transplant, I was fortunate enough to chat with Segway inventor Dean Kamen a couple years afterwards about his work in organ regeneration and am excited to see the current state of his work at Synbiobeta. 3 min read
Chinese Alt-Protein: Chinese President recently announced their policy push to become a leader in the alternative protein food industry. 5 min read
Just Say No to Cancer: My friend Dr. Shelby at Compound VC shares their latest thesis around cancer prevention. 2 min read
Longevity Playbook: My former boss and his team over at NFX explain how GLP-1 drugs are the blueprint for the next era of medicine. 10 min read
Your Future Career: Communities and Resources
You do not have to be a scientist to work at any of these companies. They need all kinds of skills like any company, especially with regards to commercialization. So don’t exclude yourself from an exciting career. For an overview and a whole host of resources for each of the deep tech areas, see this post and this other post of mine.
Ignition News: Great easy to read resource for keeping up with what is going on in the nuclear industry. Plus they have announced their inaugural summit for May 20th in New York City.
Payload Space: It’s a great resource for space startups news in an easy to read format and they have events in different parts of the US.
Quantum Biology Speaker Series: Weekly speaker series hosted by my friend Prof Clarice Aiello on various topics in quantum biology.
Quantum Computing: My friend Marianna Bonanome at SandboxAQ has lots of resources from podcasts to explainers, including a new residency program for graduate students.
Space Ambition: Regular video office hours where they break down the business case for space tech for current and future founders and advisors.
Synbiobeta May 5-8 2025 in San Jose, CA: One of a few of my favorite communities run by my friend John Cumbers for synthetic biology with tracks including space medicine and brain computer interfaces. Highly recommend it if you are a student, a founder, or investor. Students can get reduced or free access if accepted to volunteer at the event or some sponsored tickets have been possible via my friends over at Nucleate. Many and increasing number of international groups including my friends over at the UK BioIndustry Association (BIA).
TWiML: I attended one the first events that This Week In Machine Learning (TWiML) ever ran and it was better than any other AI conference I had attended. Sam Charrington runs a wonderful podcast series as well as a community section with study groups on Slack.
Utility Dive: A nice summary of energy and utility news to keep in the loop.
XPrize Design Studio: Do you have an idea of an XPrize to change the world? You can submit your idea and it might get selected to be funded by the XPrize. This year’s opportunity runs from Feb 18 to Apr 15.
XPrize Adventure Trip: My friends over at the XPrize have. a pretty cool deeptech adventure trip planned for Glasgow, Cambridge, and London. Very cool experience if you aren’t already a practionner plus the people that participate in these trips are great to know.